Where Freo can win the Elim Final
What Geelong are the best at doing, Freo is the best at stopping. Something’s got to give.
So how can Fremantle defeat the Cats and keep its finals dream alive?
Having a look at what each side does best, Saturday night’s clash at the MCG looks like being a case of ‘something’s gotta give’.
Geelong are excellent at moving the ball from defence into attack. They rank second in the AFL (behind Hawthorn) at converting rebound 50s into forward 50 entries.
But Fremantle, over the past 6 weeks, leads the league in forward-half pressure acts. It’s this pressure that will be called upon to ensure the Cats don’t receive an easy passage from defence into attack.
The man that has been a major factor in Geelong’s transference of play has been half-back Andrew Mackie. He ranks second at the club for rebound 50s, but also features prominently in inside 50s, meaning the Cats go through him frequently to get them out of defence and also into attack.
Geelong has been incredible lately at moving the ball from a full-back kick-in into its attacking 50, doing this at a 40 per cent success rate over the past month.
Freo, however, is the best in the AFL at stopping that from occurring. Ross Lyon’s men have allowed only 13 per cent of opposition full-back kick-ins to enter attacking 50.
Once Geelong enters its attacking 50, it is the best in the league at taking marks. In-form Tom Hawkins accounts for around 25 per cent of Cats' marks inside attacking 50.
But Freo concede the fewest opposition marks inside 50, with only 15 per cent of opposition entries ending up in a mark this season. What impact the loss of Luke McPharlin has on this statistic remains to be seen.
At the MCG on Saturday night, something’s got to give.